LTYM - Cone of Uncertainty

Letters to a Young Manager

Cone of Uncertainty, #552
LTYM >

Please note that this letter is in-process; the following are my notes

Dear Adam,

***

NOAA Hurricane map example; also see Crisis Mgmt chapter

The cone of uncertainty used in NOAA hurricane maps and in Paul Saffo's futurist work (see his 2007 article in HBR, here: https://hbr.org/2007/07/six-rules-for-effective-forecasting ). The closer you get to the end, the less uncertainty. But IT managers can't wait that long. How do they read the tea leaves and make a decision on a current project or new technology that separates the signal from the noise?

***

Sincerely yours,
Ed

________________________

References...

Takeaways:

Clarity of vision happens when it's too late

Discussion Questions:

For Further Reading: